Year 2030 Community Development Vision Project

Introduction

The purpose of the 2030 Community Development Vision Project is to develop a Vision for Metropolitan Detroit's future that represents where the region wants to go rather than where it is currently heading. Transportation Riders United (TRU) proposes that an appropriate 2030 Community Development Vision be based on maximizing “quality of life” and “return on infrastructure assets” while at the same time minimizing taxpayer's investment. Certainly, a more efficient use of urban land facilitates development of rapid transit and there is a synergy between high quality transit and vibrant urban places. The beneficiaries of developing a vision for the future are our children and grandchildren.

Currently, the customary view of the future of Metropolitan Detroit is represented by SEMCOG's 2030 Regional Development Forecast. This forecast is simply a prediction of what would happen in the future as the region continues along the same course. While the overall number of new jobs, population and housing units within the region predicted by SEMCOG's forecast are probably appropriate, TRU is most concerned with where SEMCOG predicts the additional growth and investment would occur. SEMCOG's 2030 Regional Development Forecast is a sophisticated trend analysis that predicts continuing disinvestments in the City and nearby suburbs as the outlying areas suffer additional sprawl, congestion and loss of rural character.

Specifically, the SEMCOG Forecast predicts that over the next 27 years, Detroit will lose another 57,000 households and 40,000 jobs. Job loss will also occur in the close-in suburbs with SEMCOG predicting a 20 percent job loss or more in Dearborn Heights , Allen Park , Inkster , Harper Woods , Highland Park , Melvindale, Wyandotte , Hazel Park , Oak Park , and Roseville . At the same time, SEMCOG predicts that the amount of developed land will rapidly increase by at least 36 percent, with the cost of developing this additional land and needed infrastructure borne by only a slowly growing population.

SEMCOG has been developing forecasts for the region for years. These Regional Development Forecasts are extremely powerful documents that have been used to drive development outwards. SEMCOG's Regional Development Forecasts have been inappropriately used as key input into the design for the regional road, water, and sewer networks. SEMCOG forecasts are also used by developers to plan where to locate new developments. Because of these uses, the SEMCOG Forecasts have been self-fulfilling, even though most in the region would view these forecasts as an undesirable future.

 

This conventional pattern of development, as represented by SEMCOG's 2030 Regional Development Forecast, threatens the economic, social and environmental viability of the region. In order to move to a different pattern of development, the region needs to make changes including changing policies. T he "market forces" driving the disinvestments in established communities and sprawl in outlying areas are to a large extent caused by government policy, including local, regional, state and national policy. Rather than plan for this state of affairs, TRU believes that a new vision can be used to create the best possible future for our children and grandchildren.

Suggested 2030 Vision

As a first step, TRU has proposed that over the next 27 years, this region must declare it unacceptable for any further job loss or housing unit loss to occur in Detroit and the close-in suburbs. In addition, TRU proposes that policies be enacted to encourage job growth and housing growth to be directed to Detroit . Concentrated job growth is the first step to restoring the urban core, the heart and soul of the region.

TRU's vision is for Detroit to increase households from 350,000 in 2000 to 450,000 households in 2030. This would be an increase of about 100,000 households within the city of Detroit in the next 27 years. SEMCOG predicts a gain of about 400,000 new households across the region so that one in four new households would be within the City of Detroit . This would be a reversal of the rate of household loss in the City of Detroit over the last 30 years. Over a 10-year period, Macomb County increased the number of households by about 50,000 so it seems reasonable that over a 30-year period, the City of Detroit could increase the number of households by 100,000 units with proper policy. Housing growth in Detroit on this scale would simply restore Detroit households to the 1970 levels when Detroit was already down significantly from its 1950 peak. See Attachment A for maps of household growth based on SEMCOG's forecast and TRU's vision.

TRU's vision is for the number of jobs in Detroit to grow from about 350,000 jobs in 2000 to about 500,000 jobs in 2030, an overall increase of about 150,000 jobs. SEMCOG predicts that the region will gain about 440,000 jobs between 2000 and 2030. Our vision is for 1 in 3 new jobs to be located within the City of Detroit . Again this is essentially a reversal of the job loss over the last 30 years so that there is capacity in the City of Detroit for this many new jobs. Over the last 10 years, Oakland County had job growth of 230,000 jobs so it is reasonable for Detroit to have job growth of 150,000 jobs over a 30-year period. See Attachment B for maps of job growth based on SEMCOG's forecast and TRU's vision.

With this housing growth and job growth within the core established communities, there would be significantly less pressure for housing growth and job growth in new undeveloped areas, the principal drivers of sprawl. In addition, people throughout the region would rediscover their love for the City of Detroit . Only by rediscovering this love, can the full potential of the region be unleashed.

Expected Economic Benefits

The region would experience tremendous economic savings if TRU's vision becomes a reality. SEMCOG estimates that Metropolitan Detroit has a need for $14 to $27 billion in sewer infrastructure costs between now and 2030. About half of this cost is for new sewer construction and new wastewater treatment plants to support sprawl, while only about a quarter of the cost is associated with sewer rehabilitation, combined sewer overflow control and sanitary sewer overflow remediation, costs associated with existing communities. If the region were to redevelop consistent with TRU's vision, sewer infrastructure costs alone could be reduced by $7 to $13 billion because less expansion would be required.


SEMCOG also estimates that there is an unfunded need through 2025 for $17 billion for new road capacity projects to meet the needs predicted by the SEMCOG 2030 forecast. By planning for an alternative 2030 Vision that redirects job growth and households back into Detroit , many of these road capacity projects would not be needed. Assume that to make the vision occur, the region would need to invest $5 billion in high-quality transit projects. This would result in a net savings to the region of $10 to 12 billion in taxpayers' money needed for transportation projects.

 

If TRU's vision were implemented, public investment in transportation and sewer funding alone could be reduced by about $20 billion over the period. This would be equivalent to about $200,000 per each returning household unit to the City of Detroit .

 

We have performed a first-order approximation of personal transportation savings by following the TRU Vision. We estimate a savings in the region of about $1 billion per year in reduced automobile usage expense and a savings of about 140 million gallons of gasoline per year. The savings in gasoline results in a reduction of about 1.5 million tons per year of greenhouse gas emissions in the region. (See Attachment C) These reductions are due to the expectation that those people that choose to live in an urban village would drive less than people who choose to live in a typical sprawl community. Overall, this represents about a 5 percent reduction in vehicle miles traveled and a 2 percent reduction of the number of vehicles required, as compared to SEMCOG's forecast for 2030.

 

Other economic issues that should be reviewed include the impact on revenue sharing and property tax revenue on established communities, the savings by utility companies of more households per block of utility line and the savings in community infrastructure such as:

• Schools

• Hospitals

• Religious institutions

• Police, fire

• City services

• Libraries

 

While the taxpayer savings would be significant, the true economic benefit would come from unleashing the full potential of a region that attracts people who want to be here. TRU's 2030 Vision provides for a diverse mix of land uses, housing stock and transportation options, thereby making room for people with diverse interests. Everyone could find a place in the region where they would want to be.

 

appropriate policies

 

In all cases, let's believe that people should be able to live and set up their business where they want to, but they should not rely on the entire region's tax base to help them pay for the extra costs of locating in undeveloped areas. The tax base of the established communities must not be used to lower the vitality of the established communities. This would mean that the full cost of extending water and sewer service, road, utility, etc should be paid for by those that desire to develop and locate in these new areas. As an example, now the residential cost for electric power is the same, no matter where you are in Metropolitan Detroit. Shouldn't those who require service extensions to receive power and live in a low-density area with long distances between them and the next user pay a higher rate on kilowatt hours consumed?

 

Metropolitan Detroit currently experiences a low rate of population growth. We can not afford the increasing costs of spatial expansion with the same population base paying ever expanding taxes. Until the region becomes more vibrant, we need to assume that we are in a game of Chinese Checkers. Building new schools, homes, offices, hospitals and churches at the fringes causes the same facilities to be abandoned in Detroit and the inner-ring suburbs. A new investment in sprawl results in as big or bigger a disinvestment in our existing communities. SEMCOG's 2030 Forecast expects that development will continue to exceed the real growth of the region. This will further exacerbate the problems of both the older and newer communities. The older communities, facing a shrinking tax base lose vitality. New sprawl-based communities can't finance the appropriate infrastructure without taking tax money from the established communities.

 

As proposed by the Southeast Michigan Sustainable Business Forum ( www.smsbf.org ) companies do well when they use a “triple-bottom line” test. In the public sector, this would mean that public investments should follow this triple-bottom line test:

•  Is it good for the region's economy?

•  Is the investment good for the environment? And

•  Does it work to bring people together by building community?

 

As a “concrete” example, let's compare the proposed investments of an added lane to I-75 through Oakland County to a light-rail system from Downtown Detroit to Birmingham as outlined in Table 1:

 

 

Table 1

Triple-Bottom Line Assessment of Two Public Investments

 

Issue	I-75 Expansion	Light Rail
Economy
Public Investment	About $600 million	About $400 million
Regional Job growth	Encourages job growth in outer regions with disinvestments in existing communities	Encourages job growth in existing communities
Development	Encourages development in outer regions with disinvestments in existing communities	Encourages development in existing communities
Individual operating cost	About $6000+/year to own and operate an automobile, essential for access	About $50 per month for a transit pass
Flow of resources	Large percentage of operating money goes out of region to pay for foreign oil and cars	Large percentage of operating money stays in region to pay for high-quality transit jobs
Transportation jobs	Creates jobs during building	Creates jobs to both build and operate

 

Table 1 (continued)

Triple-Bottom Line Assessment of Two Public Investments

 

Issue	I-75 Expansion	Light Rail
Environment
Water quality	Increases stormwater and wastewater discharges, reduces absorption capacity by creating impervious surfaces	No change in impervious surfaces
Air quality	Increase in number of automobile trips and increase in length of trips results in higher emissions	Reduced need for automobile trips and reduced trip length reduces air emissions
Global warming	Increase in number of automobile trips and trip length results in higher greenhouse gas emissions	Reduced need for automobile trips and reduced trip length reduces greenhouse gas emissions
Green Space	Consumes green space	Doesn't consume green space
“Sprawl”	Encourages auto-oriented, sprawling development	Encourages dense, infill development in existing communities
Community
Interactions with others	Encourages being isolated in a steel shell	Encourages associations with the diverse range of people using transit
Physical well being	Hard to get exercise. Obesity ( Michigan is 3 rd highest) and related diseases rise	Encourages walking and better physical fitness
Associations	Encourages separation and racial segregation	Encourages neighborhoods and walkable communities
	Encourages sprawl development	Encourages compact, mixed use development
Schools	Encourages disinvestments in established school systems	Encourages investment of established school systems

 

 

Specific Project

 

Paul Hawken is emerging as one of the leading philosophers of the sustainability movement. He is author of Natural Capitalism , Growing a Business , & The Ecology of Commerce . The Utne Reader Named Mr. Hawken as 1 of "100 Visionaries Who Could Change Our Lives."

 

In the TRU conference of April 2002 titled “Moving from a Region in the Red to a Region in the Green,” Paul Hawken spoke about developing connected urban villages. He emphasized that to do this, all aspects of the work have to be coordinated, the transit system, the zoning, the street and parking design, pedestrian friendly, etc. If you just put a transit line down without providing the other components, it likely would fail. The co-founder of TRU, Stephen Hands then developed a study on a Woodward Corridor Streetcar System that would provide the connections between Birmingham and Downtown Detroit.

 

The stations can be built very inexpensively. Because of the use of low-floor streetcars, the stations must only have a slab of pavement, a shelter for rain, on-time information, trashcans, lights, video cameras and a proof of payment (honor system) ticket machine. Stations do not need to be expensive to demonstrate to developers that the streetcar is permanent. The rails in the street provide this demonstration and also advertise the system.

 

Creating incentives for developers to invest in Transit Oriented Developments (TODs) is very important to the success of a rail line. TODs create new ridership for the line. A rail line can spark a lot of development because more people can get to the area. By building a rail line in an area where there is a lot of empty land, the region could see a rebirth of that area, because people can build without worrying so much about parking. In order to harness this wealth of development, certain codes should be implemented along the line. Zoning codes should be changed a half-mile around every station to allow mixed-use development. Building codes should be put in place that require:

• The main entrance to any business should be on the sidewalk with no parking lots in front.
• Minimum densities a quarter-mile around stations of at least 35 residential units per acre for all new development.
• No parking requirement for businesses anywhere along the rail transit.

These building code changes are necessary to encourage creation of the walkable urban environment where a transit system can best succeed.

Based on some additional first-order review of the potential of the Woodward Corridor system, the growth of housing units and jobs would be significant. (See Attachment D). Looking at the small section of the line between downtown and Warren Avenue , there is plenty of space to accommodate 6,000 new housing units and 10,000 new jobs and eliminate the need for 5,100 parking spaces. The streetcar line would help make urban villages thrive in the necklace area of Downtown, at Clifford and Columbia west of the Fox theatre, around the Masonic temple and Orchestra Hall. The streetcar line would strengthen the existing urban villages just south of Wayne State University . Essentially, the jobs would come from increasing the occupancy rates at existing office towers downtown. At $100k per housing unit and $50k per job and $12k per parking space eliminated, this is an economic benefit of $600 million in housing, $500 million in jobs and $61 million in parking savings. Assuming a build-out time of 15 years, this two-mile length of a 20-mile system could be responsible for 6% of the vision's household growth and 7% of the vision's job growth. The streetcar line would invigorate additional private investment, job growth and housing growth along the entire line.

Detailed Objectives 

An alternative vision of the region can be built on work which has been done. In addition, specific disciplined projections in the following areas are needed to provide the structure for the vision:

•  Changes in population density
•  Estimate the increase in the region's economic activity with Detroit as a vibrant central urban core
•  Estimate the increase in economic activity along transit corridors.
•  Projected savings in sewers, water, roads, schools, medical facilities, etc. if a portion of forecasted growth and reinvestment is directed back to Detroit and the inner-ring suburbs
•  Projected savings in sewers, water, roads, schools, medical facilities if a portion of the remaining growth was more compact (“Smart Growth”)
•  Projected savings in green space and corresponding water quality improvements
•  Estimates of improved well being of region as measured by concentrated poverty areas, children in distress, schools in distress, job access and other appropriate measures
•  Estimates of changes in vehicle miles traveled
•  Estimates of improvements in air quality
•  Estimates of improved energy efficiency and fuel savings.

TRU's vision is the alternate vision: a vibrant metropolitan region, not the forecast proposed by SEMCOG of continued disinvestment.

Need for Collaborative Effort

TRU recognizes that a large collaborative effort is essential for success of a Vision. As demonstrated by other Midwest regions such as Chicago , St Louis and Cleveland , the broad regional community using a large group of interested stakeholders needs to develop and implement the Vision.

With detailed information demonstrating the benefits of moving toward a sustainable vision for the future, rather than simply a trend forecast, and a large group of interested stakeholders, the 2030 Vision can be communicated to the regional community and gain the public momentum necessary to develop the policy changes that will be needed to move the region forward.

TRU continues to believe that another organization having a more universal regional focus could be better positioned to sponsor the 2030 Vision and gather broad support.

Other regions across the country are working together towards a common vision better than Metropolitan Detroit. TRU's goal is to raise awareness and create momentum for the leadership of Metropolitan Detroit to work together, collaboratively, to solve our crushing problems. To that end TRU is seeking funding and partners to create a new vision for Metropolitan Detroit that is not business as usual, but is sustainable, equitable, efficient and effective. TRU is seeking to re-model the future of this region by changing base assumptions. Imagine a Metropolitan Detroit future based on:

• Focusing on redeveloping/reinvesting in established communities
• Building a rapid-transit system and encouraging transit-oriented development
• Implementing policies so that new development not in established communities pays its full cost for infrastructure expansion
• Working and planning together as a region
• Treating all people equitably

TRU is seeking to show a different ghost of the future, one that is brighter and more prosperous for all of us, and transit gets us there.

Summary of Actions and Thoughts

During the spring and summer of 2002, TRU gathered together a number of interested participants to start developing a vision for the future of the region. A list of participants is provided in Attachment E. A summary of the work performed is outlined below:

• A Development Vision to be positioned vs. SEMCOG's Forecast
• SEMCOG's Forecast is a sophisticated trend analysis.
• Vision to be a platform that excites the region and moves the region towards a different future
• TRU's 2030 Vision Committee had discussions about looking at either a micro view or a macro view. Looking at individual neighborhoods, or looking at the entire region.
• TRU's 2030 Vision Committee looked at other programs— Jefferson Area ( Charlottesville , Virginia ) Eastern Planning Initiative—very simple, but the region is entirely different from Detroit , much smaller and more rural. We also looked at the Chicago Metropolis 2020 project sponsored by the Commercial Club of Chicago. For both these projects, there is a lot of work in developing participants and buy-in.
• Difference in infrastructure costs between SEMCOG's Forecast and TRU's Vision should be analyzed.
• In the first “Moving from a Region in the Red to a Region in the Green” Forum, Paul Hawken talked about developing connected urban villages. He emphasized that to do this, all aspects of the work have to be coordinated, the transit system, the zoning, the street and parking design, pedestrian friendly, etc. If you just put a transit line down without the other work, it likely would fail. Stephen Hands then provided a presentation on a Woodward Corridor Streetcar System that would provide the connections between Birmingham and Downtown Detroit. He addressed the need to provide zoning changes to result in higher densities close to the streetcar stations.
• It is clear that dollars are needed to get startup capital. With startup capital, we can hire an individual that works with the community to select and convene stakeholders, task the stakeholders with developing the Mission and Vision, obtain needed corporate funding and develop the working organization to carry out the mission/vision.